market folly

We're posting up notes from the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, produced in partnership with Bloomberg LINK.  Next up is Zach Schreiber of PointState Capital and talked about how he expects crude oil prices to fall.  He thinks the refiners benefit and pitched Valero (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC).


Zach Schreiber's Sohn Conference Presentation

Stanley Druckenmiller gave him over half of his capital after he retired from Duquesne Capital.

IDEA: Short WTI/Long US Refiners.

Valero (VLO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC). They believe WTI crude will drop.  US oil production is growing very fast- same shale as the NG guys did.  US production will grow 1M bpd per year in 2014, 2015. 

Most everyone thinks WTI goes a lot higher, $33T long. Swelling inventories of Cushing crude.   There is a crude export ban, so they have to refine it.

Gulf coast refineries are maxed out at 96% utilization.  Can't import less, because of politics. Cash on cash IRRs are still high at these prices.  Long VLO, MPC.  10-11% FCF yields.  0.4x Debt to EBITDA.

Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the 2014 Sohn Investment Conference.