market folly

We're posting up notes from the Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada conference that just took place.  Next up is Jamie Dinan of York Capital who shared a myriad of investment ideas.


Jamie Dinan's Sohn Canada Presentation

Started off with some general comments. US growth is still quite healthy (although not considered by many people), Europe on the other hand is still not. With oil prices coming down, it will give a huge amount of money to the US consumer (essentially a $130B tax break for consumers – this of course assumes money is not relocated to other spending). Believes Europe will be a reactionary market to policies and this will create lots of distressed situations in Europe (and there is still plenty today).

Some merger-arb names which have ~90% probability of closing: Time Warner Cable/Comcast Corporation, Albemarle Corporation /Rockwood Holdings, and DIRECTV/AT&T Inc.

Next, pitched LONG Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), believes an event could happen with the recent news of Anheuser looking for a deal with SAB. Molson has a 42% stake in MillersCoors (The JV between Molson and SAB). This possible transaction will force SAB to divest their 58% interest from MillerCoors (STZ/BUD deal, divestment of Groupo Model JV), Molson seems like the only option. The deal will likely get done with debt and take Molson to 5x Net Debt-EBITDA. Believes Molson can realize great about of synergies (~$300M) from the US JV with their current Canadian operations. 

Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada here.