market folly

We're posting up notes from the Sohn Canada Investment Conference 2015 (Capitalize For Kids.)  Next up is Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital.

Howard Marks' Sohn Canada/Capitalize For Kids Presentation 2015

-    China changing from an export economy to a consumption engine. They are not invested in China due to their lack of knowledge surrounding debtor rights and landscape. Have some small investments to gain experience in the area. China’s threat to the US is not direct as < 10%, maybe 5% of GDP are directly from China. It will hurt through second order effects through trade partners such as Australia and Canada.  Worry about the countries dependent on China.

-    They focus on distressed in non-commoditized markets such as real estate, shipping, power and European MPL’s. See opportunities in Oil but prefer to invest in financially distressed rather than operationally distressed.

-    Wants rates to go up as low rates reward borrowers and penalize investors and creditors.

-     It "absolutely is not" a great time to be a distressed investor.

-     One of the worst things you can do as an investor is to invest in something you just don't understand.


Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the Capitalize For Kids Conference.