Holiday Deals: Financial Edition

Since Black Friday and all the Holiday sales are upon us, we've decided to just highlight a few deals we're seeing on the financial side of things.

1. The Wall Street Journal for 75% off. Includes both the print and online editions. The rough economy has hit advertising budgets, so WSJ and other publications are cranking out the deals.
2. FREE Quicken Online. A great tool for managing all your finances... and best of all its now completely free.
3. $60 off Investors Business Daily. Another good deal on a well-known financial publication. Not to mention, you get 4 bonus weeks free too.
4. Free Stock Trades with Zecco. No joke, 10 free trades a month with Zecco. I use them as one of my brokers and the $50-60 you save in commissions each month adds up quick. That's easily $650+ in savings each year.

Stay tuned next week for when we debut our Holiday Wishlist: Financial Edition, for some gift ideas for that savvy investor/trader you know.... or just for yourself hah.

Happy Thanksgiving

... to all the American readers out there. Markets are closed today and people are eating turkey.... good times. If you aren't an American reader, then happy day off from the American markets to you. Keep in mind that markets also close early tomorrow (Friday) at 1 p.m. EST as well.

Hope everyone has a good day and fun semi-long weekend as well!

Hedge Fund Tracking: Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital - 13F Filing 3rd Quarter 2008

This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We're aiming to cover 35 or so prominent funds this time around and we'll be releasing the 13f analysis of each individual fund here in the coming weeks. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Next up, we have Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital. If his last name sounds familiar, its because his brother, Timothy Barakett, manages fellow hedge fund Atticus Capital, whom we also track. Taken from their site, Tremblant Capital Group's objective is "to achieve superior risk adjust returns for our investors through our focused and disciplined investment process." Tremblant is a $4.1 billion hedge fund based in New York and is run by Bret Barakett, who is a former portfolio manager at Moore Capital Management (the hedge fund run by the great Louis Bacon, whom we also track). So, as you can see, despite having a great mind of his own, Barakett has worked with some of the best in the macro game. But, as we noted in September, Tremblant has had a rough year. Tremblant recently disclosed a 5.2% stake in Advanced Medical Optics (EYE). Also, they added a stake in PharmaNet (PDGI). In addition to these stakes, you can view Tremblant's entire portfolio from the 2nd quarter here.

The following were Tremblant's long equity and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.


New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Chipotle (CMG/B)
Select Sector Financial (XLF)
SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB)
MEMC Electronic (WFR)
Discovery Holding Co (DSY)
KBW Regional Banks ETF (KRE)
Williams Cos (WMB)
Geoeye (GEOY)
Colfax (CFX)
IPCS (IPCS)
Google (GOOG)
Research in Motion (RIMM) Calls
MEMC Electronic (WFR) Calls
Charter Communications (CHTR)
TW Telecom (TWTC) Calls


Some Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Visa (V): Reduced by 17%
Apple (AAPL): Reduced by 16%
NYSE Euronext (NYX): Reduced by 6%
Qualcomm (QCOM): Reduced by 46%
Baidu (BIDU)): Reduced by 26%
Redhat (RHC) Calls: Reduced by 49%
Commscope (CTV): Reduced by 43%
Ntelos Holdings (NTLS): Reduced by 37%
CVS Caremark (CVS): Reduced by 36%
Inverness Medical (IMA): Reduced by 44%
Advanced Medical Optics (EYE): Reduced by 33%
Gafisa (GFA): Reduced by 47%
Focus Media (FMCN): Reduced by 68%
American Public Education (APEI): Reduced by 49%
Nuance Communications (NUAN): Reduced by 64%
Virgin Media (VMED): Reduced by 57%
Qualcomm (QCOM) Calls: Reduced by 45%
Focus Media (FMCN) Calls: Reduced by 91%


Positions with no change
none


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
EMC (EMC) Calls
Chipotle (CMG/A)
Time Warner (TWX)
Cogent Comm (CCOI)
Baidu (BIDU) Calls
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
Time Warner (TWX) Calls
Suntech Power (STP)
Pharmaceutical Prod Dev (PPDI)
Apple (AAPL) Calls
Lehman Bros (LEH) Puts
Anadigics (ANAD)
Bare Escentuals (BARE)
Lululemon (LULU) Puts
Wyeth (WYE)
Central European Media (CETV)
Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN)
Cabelas (CAB) Puts
Petrochina (PTR)
China Petroleum (SNP)
LCAVision (LCAV)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

1. Visa (V): 7.68% of portfolio
2. Research in Motion (RIMM): 6.24% of portfolio
3. CVS Caremark (CVS) Calls: 6.2% of portfolio
4. Apple (AAPL): 5.6% of portfolio
5. NYSE Euronext (NYX): 5.3% of portfolio
6. Hologic (HOLX): 4.47% of portfolio
7. Hologic (HOLX) Calls: 4% of portfolio
8. Qualcomm (QCOM): 3.9% of portfolio
9. Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR): 3.9% of portfolio
10. Baidu (BIDU): 3.5% of portfolio
11. Corning (GLW): 3.5% of portfolio
12. Corning (GLW) Calls: 3.2% of portfolio
13. Melco Entertainment (MPEL): 2.9% of portfolio
14. Mckesson (MCK): 2.8% of portfolio
15. Eclipsys (ECLP): 2.7% of portfolio
16. RedHat (RHT) Calls: 2.5% of portfolio
17. Commscope (CTV): 2.4% of portfolio
18. RedHat (RHT): 2.2% of portfolio
19. Ntelos (NTLS): 2.1% of portfolio
20. Healthextras: 2% of portfolio

Assets listed in the long portfolio this quarter were a little over $2.1 billion compared to around $4.1 billion last quarter. Tremblant's portfolio definitely has some names that have seen abnormal amounts of selling pressure, so they were out reducing positions and raising cash levels it looks like. Please note that we have not detailed every single change to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. Also, keep in mind that these filings only include long equity and options holdings and do not reflect the cash or short portions of their portfolio. This is the ninth hedge fund we've covered in our 3rd quarter 2008 edition of our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out.

More on Barakett & Tremblant:
- Tremblant's stake in PharmaNet (PDGI)
- Also, their stake in Advanced Medical Optics (EYE)
- Tremblant's performance numbers
- Tremblant's 2nd quarter '08 portfolio

Guitar Hedge Fund

There recently was a hedge fund formed to invest in guitars... and no, I'm not joking. Taken from the IG Blog,

"Anchorage Capital, a London investment firm, is expected to launch the Guitar Fund. Set up as a hedge fund, the Guitar Fund will seek investment returns by buying rare and vintage electric and acoustic guitars (steel-string and classical), plus mandolins, banjos and amps.

And get this, investors in the fund will also have the opportunity to actually play the guitars they invest in and take them home if they wish. Also, the fund plans to lend guitars out to well-known musicians for tours, recording and other events, which would enhance memorabilia value of the assets, ahem, guitars.

The basis for the fund’s idea is Vintage Guitar magazine’s “42 Guitar Index,” created in 1991 to track prices of vintage guitars. The index has demonstrated an average annual return of over 31% without experiencing a single down year.

The fund will have a fixed 10-year life and will be listed on the Channel Islands Stock Exchange. There are currently several institutional investors willing to contribute over half of the fund’s targeted kick-off investment amount.

What’s the amount, you ask? 55 million British pounds, the equivalent of about $100 million U.S. dollars."

First, we start seeing more publicity about wine funds, and now, a guitar fund. Maybe we should be thinking more outside of the box with some of our investments! Read the rest of the post over at IG Blog.

Hedge Fund Tracking: John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital - 13F Filing 3rd Quarter 2008

This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We're aiming to cover 35 or so prominent funds this time around and we'll be releasing the 13f analysis of each individual fund here in the coming weeks. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, and Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital. Next up, we have John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Now, Griffin is similar to Stephen Mandel at Lone Pine Capital and Lee Ainslie at Maverick Capital in that they all are 'Tiger Cubs' (a.k.a. pupils of Julian Robertson while at Tiger Management). Griffin though, is more well known because he was Julian Robertson's right hand man. So, needless to say, he knows his stuff. Blue Ridge seeks absolute returns by investing in companies who dominate their industries and shorting the companies who have fundamental problems. And, right off the bat that presents us with a bit of a problem in terms of analyzing 13F's. 13F's don't show short positions, they show long positions (unless the firm is short through puts, which we *can* see). So, the inherent problem with analyzing Blue Ridge (or any fund for that matter) is that we can't see the other side of their portfolio. But, this is increasingly important for Blue Ridge simply due to Griffin's investment strategy and the fact that his short positions are equally or more important than his longs. We have, however, gotten one sneak peek at what Blue Ridge has been shorting. Both Griffin at Blue Ridge and Lee Ainslie over at Maverick Capital like to effectively hedge with a solid balance of both long and short positions (like a true hedge fund... not like some of the crazy funds these days that aren't truly hedged).

Griffin attended the University of Virginia for undergrad and received his MBA from Stanford. Recently, the University of Virginia hosted a hedge fund panel which consisted of many of the 'Tiger Cubs' as well as the founder of Tiger Management, Julian Robertson. At the panel, numerous hedge fund managers laid out some of their investment theses. Additionally, we noted that Blue Ridge recently disclosed a 5.47% stake in Millipore (MIL) and Julian Robertson had recently bought some stocks to hedge his overall short portfolio.

Now, onto the 13F. We'd like to thank Alex Prywes for their help in our 13F tracking series as it has allowed us to cover more funds. Before beginning, we'd like to suggest that you check out Blue Ridge's portfolio from last quarter, so you can get a feel for how they're altering their portfolio. The following were Blue Ridge's long equity and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.


New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Hansen Natural (HANS): 3.6% of portfolio
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): 3.49% of portfolio
Illumina (ILMN): less than 1% of portfolio
Goldman Sachs (GS): less than 1% of portfolio
Lululemon (LULU): less than 1% of portfolio
Las Vegas Sands (LVS): less than 1% of portfolio
Foster Wheeler (FWLT): less than 1% of portfolio
Wachovia (WB): less than 1% of portfolio


Added to (Positions they already owned but added more shares)
Amazon (AMZN): Increased position by 146%
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): Increased position by 108%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): Increased position by 97%
Target (TGT): Increased position by 47%
Echostar (SATS): Increased position by 35%
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): Increased position by 27.6%
Anadarko Petroleum (APC): Increased position by 24%
Grupo Televisa (TV): Increased position by 20%


Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of)
Amgen (AMGN): Sold off 85%
Charles Schwab (SCHW): Sold off 70%
Martin Marietta (MLM): Sold off 55%
Netflix (NFLX): Sold off 50%
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC): Sold off 49%
Exterran Holdings (EXH): Sold off 47.6%
Discovery Holding (DSY): Sold off 41.5%
Eagle Materials (EXP): Sold off 41%
Packaging Corp (PKG): Sold off 30%
Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR): Sold off 11%
Compton Petroleum (CMZ): Sold off 11%
Visa (V): Sold off 10.4%
Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX): Sold off 9%


Positions with no change
Covanta (CVA)
Millipore (MIL)
MBIA (MBI)
American Express (AXP) Calls
Greenlight Capital RE (GLRE)
Gold Reserve Inc (GRZ)
Elong (LONG)
Perfect World (PWRD)
Washington Mutual (WM) Puts


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Apple (AAPL)
American Express (AXP): They sold all their common shares, but still hold Calls, as noted above
Bare Escentuals (BARE)
Countrywide Financial
Crocs (CROX)
Fairfax Financial (FFH)
Fannie Mae (FNM)
Freddie Mac (FRE)
First Marblehead (FMD)
Google (GOOG)
Indymac (IDMCQ)
Nutrisystem (NTRI)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Rowan (RDC)
Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Walmart (WMT)
Wyeth (WYE)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

1. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): 8.13% of portfolio
2. Grupo Televisa (TV): 7.6% of portfolio
3. Target (TGT): 7.44% of portfolio
4. Covanta (CVA): 7.2% of portfolio
5. Millipore (MIL): 7% of portfolio
6. Amazon (AMZN): 6.4% of portfolio
7. ThermoFisher (TMO): 5.6% of portfolio
8. Anadarko (APC): 5.3% of portfolio
9. Broadridge Financial (BR): 3.7% of portfolio
10. Hansen Natural (HANS): 3.6% of portfolio
11. Visa (V): 3.6% of portfolio
12. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): 3.5% of portfolio
13. Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX): 2.67% of portfolio
14. Echostar (SATS): 2.6% of portfolio
15. Martin Marietta (MLM): 2.6% of portfolio
16. Charles Schwab (SCHW): 2.5% of portfolio
17. Packaging Corp (PKG): 2.5% of portfolio
18. Discovery Holdings (DSY): 2.2% of portfolio
19. Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): 2.2% of portfolio
20. Amgen (AMGN): 2.17% of portfolio
    

Assets listed in the long portfolio this quarter were a little over $2.6 billion compared to around $4 billion last quarter. Keep in mind that these filings only include long equity and options holdings and do not reflect the cash or short portions of their portfolio. This is the eighth hedge fund we've covered in our 3rd quarter 2008 edition of our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, and Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out.

More on Griffin & Blue Ridge:
- Blue Ridge discloses stake in Millipore (MIL)
- 'Tiger Cub' hedge fund panel (investment ideas)
- Blue Ridge is/was shorting UK banks
- Blue Ridge's 2nd quarter '08 portfolio
- John Griffin & Rick Gerson biographies
- Julian Robertson reveals some purchases

Peter Schiff: 2 Videos of Latest Commentary

Hedge Fund Tracking: Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital - 13F Filing 3rd Quarter 2008

This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We'll be bringing you the long equity portfolios of numerous prominent hedge funds. Hedge funds we track here at MarketFolly.com include: Tudor Investment Corp, Greenlight Capital, Blue Ridge Capital, Moore Capital Management, and literally many, many more. We're aiming to cover 35 or so prominent funds this time around and we'll be releasing the 13f analysis of each individual fund here in the coming weeks. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, and Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital.

Fund Background: Next up, we have Atticus Capital. Atticus Capital is a hedge fund ran by Timothy Barakett. In 2005, Atticus' funds were up a combined 45%. And, they finished well over 30% for 2006. Barakett founded the firm at age 26 in 1995 and focuses on taking large, concentrated positions in companies. One of Atticus' most famous investments was Phelps Dodge, a miner which was bought out by Freeport McMoran (FCX). At one point, Atticus owned more than 9% of Phelps. And, they continue to hold some of their position in what is now the combined FCX. Barakett received his BA in Economics from Harvard and his MBA from Harvard as well. Its very evident that Barakett employs macro based investment theses. Once he has decided on what the trend is, he will find the best company within that trend and he will place a big bet. And, when needed, he will step in and take an activist role, ensuring the company is performing to his liking.

You may have heard about Atticus over the past few weeks because they have not been performing well at all this year. In our September hedge fund performance update, we noted that Atticus European was -42.5% for the year as of September while Atticus Global was -27.2% over the same timeframe. And, consequently, Atticus was a victim of liquidation rumors, which were quickly denied. We previously analyzed Atticus' portfolio holdings back in June and noticed that they had significant natural resource and mining positions at the time. We'll get into the details below, but you can take a guess as to where a lot of their losses are coming from this year. Overall, it's been one of the worst years for hedge funds in a long time. And although Atticus still exists as a fund, they have definitely had a rough year and have been selling off assets.

The following were Atticus' long equity and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.

New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Puts
CSX Corp (CSX) Calls
Financial select sector (XLF) Puts


Added to (Positions they already owned but added more shares)
Vale (RIO) Calls
Emisphere Technologies (EMIS)


Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of)
Union Pacific (UNP)
Crown Castle (CCI)
Nyse Euronext (NYX)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Freeport McMoran (FCX)
Gold Fields (GFI)
Freeport McMoran (FCX) Calls
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Western Union (WU)
KT Corp (KTC)
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK)
China Telecom (CHA)
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC)
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR)
Sunair Services (SNE)
Petrochina (PTR)


Positions with no change
Synvista Therapeutics (SYI)


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Conoco Philips (COP)
Burlington Northern (BNI)
Conseco (CNO)
Peabody (BTU)
Mastercard (MA)
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Genomic Health (GHDX)
Visa (V)
Focus Media (FMCN)
Nyse Euronext (NYX) Puts
Banco Itau (ITU)
Boeing (BA)
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Uhaul (UHAL)
Baidu (BIDU)
Banco Bradesco (BBD)
Companhia Saneamento Basico (SBS)
Praxair (PX)
National Financial Partners (NFP)
Unibanco (UBB)
Visa (V) Calls
Conoco Philips (COP) Calls
CSX (CSX)
Clean Energy (CLNE)
General Motors (GM)
BHP (BHP)
XTO Energy (XTO)
Marriott (MAR)
Starwood Hotels (HOT)
Nymex (NMX)
Cisco (CSCO)
Microsoft (MSFT)
American Tower (AMT)
Chesapeake (CHK)
Sandridge (SD)
Monsanto (MON)
Potash (POT)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Apple (AAPL)
Google (GOOG)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

1. CSX (CSX) Calls
2. Vale (RIO) Calls
3. Freeport McMoran (FCX) Calls
4. Union Pacific (UNP)
5. Financial select sector (XLF) Puts
6. Crown Castle (CCI)
7. Russell 2000 index (IWM) Puts
8. Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
9. NYSE Euronext (NYX)
10. Newmont Mining (NEM)
11. Freeport McMoran (FCX)
12. Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK)
13. Western Union (WU)
14. Emisphere Technologies (EMIS)
15. Gold Fields (GFI)
16. China Telecom (CHA)
17. Synvista Therapeutics (SYI)
18. Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR)
19. KT Corp (KTC)
20. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC)
    

Atticus was definitely out liquidating a lot of assets. In the quarter prior, they had nearly $8 billion in their long equity portfolio. This quarter, they had only around $500 million worth of positions. That is some serious deleveraging and unwinding. This is the seventh hedge fund we've covered in our 3rd quarter 2008 edition of our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, and Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital.

Stay tuned this week and next week as we detail the portfolio holdings of more funds. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out. Here are some funds to look forward to that we will be tracking: David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp, Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Management, and many, many more.

More on Barakett & Atticus:
- Atticus Capital's 2nd quarter '08 portfolio holdings
- October Hedge Fund Performance update

Paul Kedrosky's Economic Predictions

Paul Kedrosky came out with a glut of predictions, which, for the most part, I definitely see myself agreeing with. The ultimate question here, is when do markets reflect such possible outcomes? Since they are forward looking mechanisms, it might be worth playing such scenarios in the market 6-8 months before you anticipate them to actually happen. Here are Paul's thoughts:

• We are going through a credit crisis sparked by the subprime meltdown. It is broader than that, however, really the tail end of an orgy of leverage and credit creation dating back at least 15 years
• The unwinding of all this credit bubble will take longer than most people expect, and the damage will continue to be broader than most expect. Beyond banks and financial institutions, it will include many municipalities, some large-cap tech names reliant on major debt-financed network buildouts, a host of debt-financed non-financial companies, and some sovereign nations. Total cost: Bridgewater's $2.7-trillion looks close enough to me .
• S&P forward-year earnings forecasts will come down faster than at any time in recent history. We will see 20% average estimate reductions across the board, leading to a further revaluation of the markets. After all, at S&P 1010 we are trading at 19x trailing earnings, and 18x forward, neither of which are inexpensive historically speaking. Admittedly, the above is not the non-financial S&P P/E -- ex- financial and consumer stocks we are more like 14x -- but it is a distinction that will get blurred as we go into this recession.
• We are already in a recession that will last well into the the fourth quarter of next year.
• Unemployment may touch 9% in the U.S. at trough.
• Obama will win the U.S. presidency.
• Housing will fall 10-15% further in U.S., and we are only beginning major declines in Canada, U.K., Australia, and elsewhere.
• U.S. consumers will become much more aggressive savers, both through debt reduction and direct saving. Similarly, future fiscal stimulus will largely be saved in service of this overdue need to fix domestic balance sheets.
• U.S. long yields have to rise, making curve steepener trades feel appropriate.
• Commodities will stay under pressure for the next two years,and then reverse savagely as developed countries emerge from recession at very similar times. We have newly resynchronized the global economies, which will have immense consequences.
• Coming out the other side, we will see a barbell economy, with growth and investor interest at the mega-cap consolidator end, and at the entrepreneurial smaller end. The latter will be driven by major developments in clean technology, in particular, which was just given a two-year window to gestate before the major economies worldwide turn higher and begin driving energy prices straight up.

We'll definitely have to revisit this list in a year's time, and again in two years time to see just how close Paul is with his predictions.