market folly

Today we have the recent ICSC Mall REIT presentation from Bill Ackman's hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management. The slideshow is entitled 'If You Wait For The Robins, Spring Will Be Over' and it addresses the macro environment as it pertains to real estate investment trusts, and in particular, mall operators. If you're unfamiliar with Ackman and Pershing, check out our profile/background post on them.

Those of you who have been reading Market Folly for a while know that Bill Ackman bought into equity and unsecured debt of General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) back when the equity was trading below $0.40 per share. Today, shares are up above $10.70 per share and the unsecured debt is trading near par. Needless to say, he has already won big time on this play. But, he's not done yet. Ackman recently detailed more in-depth thoughts about GGWPQ in his investor letter. Given that GGWPQ is emerging from bankruptcy, he believes that GGWPQ can either emerge as a standalone company and that the equity will still be valuable (even if the unsecured converts over) or it can serve as a prime takeover target. If you've been paying attention recently, you already know that Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Simon Property Group (SPG) have been buying GGWPQ's debt so things are getting interesting on a possible takeover or some other strategy.

Ackman has already presented his case specifically for GGWPQ in a previous presentation, so now Pershing Square has shifted to a more top-down look at the US economy, the US consumer, and REIT mall operators. Embedded below is Pershing Square's entire 68-slide presentation from the latest ICSC event. RSS & Email readers will have to come to the blog to view their presentation.



You can download the .pdf here. While the above presentation details an overview of the industry, make sure to check out Ackman's original presentation on GGWPQ as well for more detailed specifics. Pershing certainly has painted a bullish picture for mall REIT operators. Their conclusions are that mall REITs and their tenants have not only survived, but have been resilient in a time of trouble. In order for REITs to outperform going forward, Pershing argues that you don't need to see consumer spending at 2007 levels either. They believe that the closure of underperforming stores is a long-term benefit for these operators as it weeds out the weak (our words, not theirs). Lastly, their bullishness can also be attributed to the fact that tenant cash flows (and as such their balance sheets) are much improved over a year ago and that many retailers have substantial growth plans.

For more resources on Bill Ackman's hedge fund Pershing Square, check out their latest investor letter where they talk in-depth about GGWPQ and their other positions. Additionally, we've also covered Pershing Square's portfolio recently as well. Lastly, you can also check out previous presentations from Bill Ackman's hedge fund as they presented the case for a long of Corrections Corp of America (CXW), as well as their case for a short of Realty Income (O).