market folly

Yesterday we covered Pershing Square hedge fund manager Bill Ackman's latest investment: long the Hong Kong dollar. Today we present the slideshow presentation he gave at the Delivering Alpha conference entitled: Linked to Win.

In summary, Ackman thinks that the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is headed for massive inflation and a real estate bubble. He argues the country can effectively mitigate this by allowing the Hong Kong Dollar to appreciate.

Ackman says there are four principal revaluation alternatives:

1. Allow the HKD to float
2. Repeg the HKD to a trade-weighted basket
3. Repeg the HKD to the RMB
4. Keep the USD peg, but revalue to an appropriate exchange rate

The Pershing Square manager feels that the Hong Kong government will repeg the HKD at a stronger exchange rate to the USD and believes a 30% revaluation to 6:1 is likely. As such, he says there are 3 ways to make money on the trade: buy HKD outright, buy HKD with USD leverage, and buy HKD call options.

Embedded below is Ackman's presentation on the Hong Kong dollar (email readers click the link to come read it):



To read more on Pershing Square, head to our posts on Ackman's recent portfolio activity as well as Pershing's hedging strategy.

For more hedge fund insight from the Delivering Alpha conference, check out the hedge fund best ideas panel featuring Kyle Bass, Dan Loeb, Leon Cooperman, and Phil Falcone.