market folly

At day two of the Value Investing Congress, Leon Cooperman of hedge fund Omega Advisors gave the case for going long Apple (AAPL) and E*Trade (ETFC) in a presentation entitled "The Investment Outlook & Some Attractive Values."

Be sure to check out all of our notes from the Value Investing Congress.


Leon Cooperman (Omega Advisors)

Embedded below is the full slideshow presentation from Cooperman:




"Like it or not, we've entered a world of risk-on risk-off macro world." Four conclusions that require four assumptions:

1. Assume US will avoid recession; remain slow growth at worst: Metrics suggest we are not on a recession track. Bank lending improving, consumer savings rate up to 4% from 1%, debt service ratio good. Not a “feel good” environment, with 9% unemployment, 10% only part-time. “I take very strong exception to the idea that 2011 is another 2008.” Corporate America most cash on balance sheets since 1955. Oil drop from 115 to 80.

2. Assume that Eurozone will effectively ring-fence Greek sovereign debt issues: “We expect sane policies to prevail, since there is no choice.” His view, based on 45 years of experience, is when the problem is so catastrophic, and expected to occur, it doesn’t occur. He thinks they’ll follow the US banking model, raise capital, shed noncore assets, delever.

3. Assumption that failed, Obama would come to the center: He says it’s not happening. Old expression: “When the President is in trouble, the market is in trouble.” He rants against Obama- says he only wants to tax the wealthy, debase the dollar, borrow from the world to create a welfare state.

4. Assume the Middle East settles down, oil prices stay reasonable: At 1100, the SPX had already discounted a mild recession that was not happening. He says stocks are compelling valuations here. Says market dropped 20%, a traditional recession market correction is 25%. Thinks the recent lows of 1100 are the downside for the cycle. Requires two of the top 4 assumptions.

Even if we did have a recession, SPX eps usually only drops 15-20%, so even if they did drop, he says 14 times trough earnings to be very compelling. He still expects SPX eps of $100 or more in 2012. Still in early stages of an economic recovery.

Valuation: Stocks are cheap relative to history, inflation, and interest rates. Last 50 years, SPX ave P/E was 15x. Now multiple is 11.6x, with only 2% interest rates vs. 6.6% average. Highest ERP in 20 years. Average bear market bottom the P/E was 12x, where we are now. Just had one of the worst 10 year return years in history, believes will mean revert. Corporate bonds are nowhere near where they were in 2008/9, down 70% in yield, yet SPX is 2 multiples lower than it was back then. He is starting to buy corporate bonds with 9% yields. 45% of the SPX stocks now pay higher yields than 10-year treasury bonds- same high level as 2009, we haven’t seen this in 50 years.

Avoid treasuries: Says 10-year bonds historically yield same as nominal GDP. Says if you believe we get 2% growth, plus 2-3% inflation, that’s 4-5% yield, and bonds will lose a lot of money. Still predicts low growth for next decade: 2-2.5% GDP, 2-2.5% inflation, 4-5% nominal GDP, stocks make 7-9%, treasuries negative return.

“You don’t have to have a strongly rising stock market to make a lot of money.” 1967 Dow was 1000, 10 years later, 1982, the Dow was 1000. Over time, there is ample opportunity to find things that are mispriced to the market. (They had EP yesterday as a 2% position before the buyout).

He’s 78% net long, says things look very cheap. With a little patience, can make a great deal of money.


Top Ten Long Ideas:

Apple (AAPL): Less than 10x multiple net of cash. Succession clear. Financial policies somewhat destructive, sitting on $80B in cash, but that may change.

Boston Scientific (BSX): 20% FCF yield

Qualcomm (QCOM): 16% grower trading for 12x

Sallie Mae (SLM)

ACE (ACE)

Transocean (RIG): Says deep water drilling cycle is turning. 6.5% yield, well covered dividend, day rate is improving. Says stock is discounting $5-10B, but will settle for $1-2B

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

KKR (KKR): Dividend paying stock, but get K1, getting 9% yield, and expects growth.

Energy XXI (EXXI)

E*Trade Financial (ETFC): Ken Griffin involved, TD Ameritrade (AMTD) could buy them. Mortgage losses over, even with no deal, management is on the right track.


For more from the Omega Advisors manager, head to Cooperman's thoughts from Delivering Alpha.


Don't miss the rest of the hedge fund manager presentations in our notes from the Value Investing Congress.