market folly

Checking in with market strategist Jeff Saut we see that his latest weekly market commentary is entitled 'Buying Stampede' due to all the questions he's received lately about the market.

Saut writes, "I continue to believe the SPX is going to trade north of 1700 into the end of 2Q13 before becoming vulnerable to a more significant decline beginning in the July/August timeframe.  Obviously I have never seen a buying stampede like this one, which has lifted the senior index above a basing formation in the charts that was 13 years in the making."

He then notes that there have been four previous 'bases' that have launched secular bull markets that have lasted 12 years or longer (1906-1924, 1929-1955, 1966-1982, and then 2000-2013).

Saut cites a slidedeck of this data that says "The characteristics of the market when it breaks out of a base that exceeds 12 years in length is different. Investor behavior reflects an underlying distrust or disinterest and is characterized by underinvestment in equities.  This results in a rebound that is relentless, providing little opportunity to buy on pullbacks."  Sound familiar?


Embedded below are Saut's full analysis and comments:



You can download a .pdf copy here.


For more thoughts from this strategist, head to Jeff Saut on investor sentiment and you can also see his best stock ideas for the next 3-5 years that he outlined early this year.