market folly

Raymond James' market strategist Jeff Saut and chief economist Scott Brown have just released their 'Gleanings' report highlighting various charts that pull together economics, fundamentals, and quantitative analysis regarding the market.

The biggest point they've highlighted is that the market has a history of making 'big bases' and then ramping higher.  Saut points out that there have been four big bases that have exceeded 12 years since 1900:

- 1906 to 1924, 18 years
- 1929 to 1955, 26 years
- 1966 to 1982, 16 years
- 2000 to 2013, 13 years

Saut notes that, "Investor behavior reflects an underlying distrust or disinterest and is characterized by underinvestment in equities.  This results in a rebound that is relentless, providing little opportunity to buy on pullbacks."

With these long built up bases and the breakouts that often follow them, Saut highlights some common fundamental characteristcis:

- Rebound from high unemployment
- High government interest payments on debt
- Low investor allocation to equities
- Extremely high/low interest rates (alternates)


Embedded below is the Raymond James slideshow presentation, 'Gleanings: June 2013':




You can download a .pdf copy here.

For more from these gentlemen, head to Jeff Saut on the odds of a new secular bull market.