market folly

Chuck Akre of Akre Capital Management recently had a talk at Google about investing entitled "The Peregrinations of an English Major Trying to Solve the Investment Puzzle."

If you're unfamiliar with Akre, he focuses on finding long-term compounders and runs a somewhat concentrated portfolio.  Here's notes from his talk:


Chuck Akre's Talk at Google

- Reads voraciously to this day.  Cited one of the very first books he liked: The Money Masters.  Also noted that 100:1 in the Stock Market is the book he took the idea of compounding from.  Said he read The Intelligent Investor as well as business biographies.

- What makes a great investment?  "Rate of return is the bottom line of all investing."

- Looks at free cashflow return and focuses on valuation as the key to compounding; buy it right.

- How do they identify investments that will generate above average returns?  "We like to fish in the pond of high return businesses."  Asks: what kind of returns on capital?  What are the net margins?  Thinks an 'average' business returns high single digits.  Cites Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) with 30% margins.  "What is it about the essence of that business that allows them to earn returns that cause them to have a big bullseye on their back?"

- Three-legged stool:  Their investment construct that lets them think in simple terms.  First leg is the quality of a business: a high return business.  Second leg is operations: want management to have skill and integrity (a demonstrated record) and treat investors as partners.  Third leg is reinvestment: would love the company to put cash back into the business if there's great opportunity.  Cited the book Dear Chairman (which we've reviewed here).

- "I have never been able to learn from other people's mistakes.  I have to make my own."

- Wants to be an investor in a business rather than a speculator in shares.

- His goal is to compound capital at an above average rate while incurring a below average level of risk.  Volatility is only a risk in the short run.

- Akre's separately managed accounts over 27 years have compounded at 12.7% versus S&P at 9.4%.  Also has a partnership that's done 15.25% versus S&P 9.2% and mutual funds that have done 13.2% annual.

- Mastercard: originally purchased in 2010 at around $22 with regulatory worries around Durbin amendment.  Business has fantastic returns, had a low valuation (13-14x at the time).  "Their returns are so high they can't possibly find a place to reinvest their money, so our compounding is diminished modestly because of that."

- Moody's (MCO): Bought in January 2012 at $39.  Any company that wants debt has to get a rating on it and it's basically an oligopoly: MCO, S&P (SPGI), and Fitch.

- Enstar (ESGR): Been involved for 10 years.  They buy insurance that's in run-off.  Paid 3 times book when he bought shares. 

- Quotes Einstein: "You should make everything simple as possible but no simpler."  "We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we use to create them."  "The only source of knowledge is experience."  "Imagination is more important than knowledge."  That last quote is what's on the front of Akre's book:

- Two of his best investments (100 baggers): Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and American Tower (AMT).  "Most of the time you can buy these businesses at reasonable valuations... sometimes you can buy them at a steal."

- On selling: "The most difficult thing to do in our business is not sell, if you're a long-term investor."

- Bought Visa (V) because they have concentration limits in their funds and were bumping into that with their stake in MA.  Did the same with SBA Communications (SBAC) as it relates to their AMT position.  Gaining more exposure to the themes via competitors since individual position limits kicked in.

Embedded below is video of Chuck Akre's talk at Google:



We've covered many other investor talks at Google, including:

- Howard Marks' talk at Google

- Michael Mauboussin's talk at Google

- Jim Grant's talk at Google