market folly

We're posting up notes from the Sohn New York Investment Conference.  Next up is Parvinder Thiara of Athanor Capital who presented long Brazilian bonds.


Parvinder Thiara's Sohn New York Presentation

•    Worked at DE Shaw for 8 years before setting up fund; Chemist
•    Uses macro for relative value trades
•    Brazil- Long Brazilian bonds (currency hedged) as too much policy tightening is being priced in.

o    Went through a painful economic cycle and too much policy tightening is being priced in.
o    Real output still 5% below previous peak. Inflationary pressure should remain low as there is slack in the economy. There is currently low inflation. Easing is more likely than tightening being priced in.
o    Balance of payments is good and has money to defend currency. Not vulnerable to current account shocks. This isn’t Turkey or Argentina
o    Bolsonaro wants lower rates and tweets about it like Trump


Be sure to check out the rest of the Sohn New York conference presentations.